Investment Discussions
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Hi! This group spawns from a personal interest in investing ideas
and concepts. Particularly, I like to research out of the way
concepts, hidden stories, anomalies, and trends. While the
information contained herein has been obtained from sources
believed to be reliable, its accuracy and completeness cannot be
guaranteed. Chris Grande has not independently verified the facts,
assumptions, and estimates contained in these posts. Accordingly,
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William
Swing trading, Metastock, Metastock add-ins + -
Serious replies only, please.
Darren
Stocks + -
Ace / 6one7 Pro
RE: Stocks + -
Darren
RE: Stocks + -
Chris
RE: Stocks + -
Chris
Charvak
RE: Stocks + -
Joe
RE: Stocks + -
Chris
RE: Stocks + -
Charvak
Berlin real estate + -
My investment thesis is that real estate in Berlin and Germany in general is a good long term investment. The area has a vibrant culture, solid infrastructure, and seems like a nice place to live. The current financial problems will be overcome as new businesses are attracted to the area. An added bonus is that it is away from the ocean and won't flood when/if sea levels rise.
G-REITs have not yet been approved, but may be anytime this year. Until then, I want to invest in a minimum variance optimized basket of: BVH.DE, DOL.DE, KBU.DE, DWN.DE, FFM.DE, and GFJ.DE. Unfortunately, I can't figure out how to buy German stocks in my American brokerage account. Does anyone have advice on how to do so? Maybe I should post that as a separate discussion topic.
Chris
RE: Berlin real estate + -
some foreign issues are traded on the pink sheets and may be available depending on your broker...
Japan is starting to heat up too - the real estate has already moved up tho for 2 years...
Chris
RE: Berlin real estate + -
Robert
Online investing hacks... + -
Chris
RE: Online investing hacks... + -
I could possibly help -what exactly are you trying to do?
Chris
Robert
RE: Online investing hacks... + -
Chris
RE: Online investing hacks... + -
chris
Chris
Is the trend our friend? + -
http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/...
Chris
Total destruction of the housing market? + -
1. super cheap money - people are payment focused not principal focused ("if the payment is low then I'm in" thinking)
2. Increase in the number of federally backed 1-5% down payment programs (no need to save 20% to buy)
3. Speculation - greater fool theory - everyone's a real estate "investor" these days. All of em are going to buy real estate, put down some mulch and paint and then resell for a 50% gain to a "greater fool."
4. More 2 income earners - historically, house prices were 3-4x's annual income now they're above 6xs (but perhaps still 3-4xs dual income?)
Reasons Prices will fall
1. who the bleep wants to buy some junk house that needs tons of work, has a huge tax rate, and costs 800k? Isnt the idea to buy when no one else wants it and sell when everyone is begging for it?
2. Boomers and seniors are selling - boomers want out, seniors need to get out. Boomer says: "If some fool 30 yr old wants to give me 800k for said house then i'm outta here!" Senior says: "I cant afford my taxes and bills so I must sell!"
Are there enough buyers to soak up all this supply? Boomer population is about 2x the size of gen X -you do the math...
3. rates rising - on a 500k mortgage, a 30 year at 6% is $2,997/month. at 8% it is $3,668 per month ($8,052 more per year). the new buyers will demand a lower buying price to bring the payment down. Purchase price needed for mortgage to remain $2,997 at 8%: $408,442 (about a 19% decrease in price or all of the greater fool's down payment of 25k and then some)
4. rates rising - adjustible rates: people who barely squeezed into a place at an adjustible 5% see their rates jump to 8% over the next 2 years -they're underwater in equity so they can't sell, and they can't afford payments- conclusion: bankruptcy. Like 1989, leave the keys in the door and take off - growing number on Bank Balance Sheets under "Real Estate Owned." They dump for what they can further pushing prices down.
How do we play this?
wait 2 years to buy in Boston. Buy in popular vacation areas where boomer demand will increase (we see this a bit in florida). lock in all adjustible rates. Pay off debt do not be spending foolishly...
any comments on what swims around in my head on a daily basis?
Chris
Roy
RE: Total destruction of the housing market? + -
I do see/hear that Fla. is doing well in that regard.
As far as mortgage rates, though, my "friend in the know" (who bought monte carlo simulation software to find his expected nest egg needed at retirement given potentially random events like hurricanes and terrorism ;) feels they won't rise much past here.
I also see strong interest in up-and-coming places like Southie, and many people really want a top-to-bottom-renovated place. Also in parts of Boston housing scarcity is an issue (more so near downtown).
Chris
RE: Total destruction of the housing market? + -
Chris
RE: Total destruction of the housing market? + -
Geoff
New oil ETF + -
http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Sto...
Charvak
finally, a residential real estate product + -
===========================================
In Q2 2006, CME will launch the CME CSI (Case-Shiller Indexes®) Housing futures and options. The CME CSI Housing futures and options are designed to provide a facile way for institutional and individual investors to gain exposure to real estate risk and effectively diversify their portfolios. Commercial and private asset holders are afforded an efficient hedging mechanism, while this novel market may have the effect of reducing transaction costs for trading real estate.
Arti
short term investing + -
Chris
RE: short term investing + -
I dont know if it applies to you, but you have til july to consolidate student loans at a low rate - they will certainly jump up in july bc they are based on short term t bill rates which have been bumped up...
I would always at least invest a little bit, it compounds alot in the future and it is just affirming to see that you are saving regularly, even if its 100/mo. I have clients who do 250/mo and i was amazed how quickly they accumulated 20k...and they're school teachers not making tons of money....
Charvak
RE: short term investing + -
First question: Is this really short term investing? If you have a full-time job, chances are you won't be drawing on your investments in the near future, unless you need to make a down payment on a house ASAP or something. Of course, I don't know you and maybe you have some sort of short-term liability. I just wanted to pose the question.
Interest on school loans is generally tax deductible. That means that another investment that returns 6% pretax might turn out to be profitable if it gets taxed at only 15% while your interest deductions are at your higher marginal tax rate. Check with your tax accountant for advice there.
According to various charts found in Bridgewater reports such as: http://web.mit.edu/charvak/www/Scienc...
expected returns over cash for equities are about 6% and about 4% for bonds. It seems that student loans are and have been at about 2% over cash.
Things you want to consider in making your decision:
1. Your short-term liquidity requirements. Maybe having access to short term cash is worth keeping the loans at 6% and a savings account at 4%. Note that unlike a fixed-rate mortgage, you can expect the loans to always be at a higher rate than the savings account.
2. Your tolerance for risk, which should determine what rate of return you receive on your investment portfolio. If your risk tolerance is high enough that you want to leverage your investments with money borrowed at 2% above cash, the loans are profitable. If you find yourself deleveraging the optimal portfolio (too afraid to invest everything, keeping money in a bank account), the loans might be costing you money.
3. Refer to: http://www.law.yale.edu/outside/html/Publ... Think about your long term earnings potential and long term goals. Maybe you make so much money with your first full-time job that the amount of money you have saved right now can be put in high risk situations because your earnings will dwarf any amount that you lose. People have a natural bias to relatively little market exposure at young ages and lots of exposure as they age and their assets grow. I think it makes sense to borrow heavily when you're young and then deleverage when you're older because it provides temporal diversification. The associated cost is that borrowing money when you're young is more expensive than selling it when you're old. That's where parent-child relationships can be helpful. I'm thinking of borrowing money at around 1% over cash from my parents because it would be a good low-risk investment for them as they approach retirement and it would beat any margin rates available to me now, besides 0% credit cards.
I'm not a certified financial planner so I have to suggest you talk to someone who will ask you the right questions and make recommendations that suit your individual needs. However, I recommend educating yourself about this stuff because I think the generally accepted investment theories are a little out of date. My Fidelity advisor said she couldn't put her stamp of approval on my portfolio because it isn't the traditional US equity portfolio for people in my situation, but she admitted that I understood what I wanted and selected the right products to get that.
Hope that helps,
Charvak